| Information component |
Pg 4 Health summary- Indicator No 5 |
| Subject category / domain(s) |
Our Communities |
| Indicator name (* Indicator title in health profile) |
GCSE and equivalent results of pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 (*GCSE achievement) |
| PHO with lead responsibility |
LHO |
| Date of PHO dataset creation |
28 Feb 2007 |
| Indicator definition |
Pupils achieving 5 or more GCSEs at grades A*-C or equivalent, percentage of pupils at end of Key Stage 4 in schools maintained by the Local Education Authority, at the end of academic year 2005-2006, persons |
| Geography |
England, GOR, Local Authority: Counties, County Districts, Metropolitan County Districts, Unitary Authorities, London Boroughs |
| Timeliness |
Annual.Next data is expected at the end of January 2008The data is suitable for time trend analysis |
|
Rationale:What this indicator purports to measure
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This indicator measures the level of GCSE achievement in the area. |
|
Rationale:Public Health Importance
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Educational attainment is influenced by both the quality of education children receive and their family socioeconomic circumstances.Educational qualifications are a determinant of an individual’s labour market position, which in turn influences income, housing and other material resources. These are related to health and health inequalities. |
| Rationale: Purpose behind the inclusion of the indicator |
This indicator relates to the DfES Public Service Agreement (PSA) target 10 which is to raise standards in schools and colleges so that: By 2008, 60% of those aged 16 achieve the equivalent of 5 GCSEs at grades A* to C; and in all schools at least 20% of pupils to achieve this standard by 2004, rising to 25% by 2006 and 30% by 2008. |
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Rationale:Policy relevance
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This indicator is the Department for Education and Skills PSA 10 target. Others include:Tackling health inequalities: A programme for action – Education. Local basket of inequalities indicators – Indicator 3.4. Best Value Performance Indicator 38 Opportunity for all – Children and young people – Indicator 6 |
| Interpretation: What a high / low level of indicator value means |
A high indicator value (red circle in health summary chart) represents a statistically significant higher level of educational attainment for that local authority when compared to the England national value. An increase in this indicator indicates that education achievement has increased relative to the number of pupils (i.e. more children achieving at least 5 GCSEs or equivalent not same children achieving more GCSEs). A low indicator value (amber circle in health summary chart) represents a statistically significant lower level of educational attainment for that local authority when compared to the national value. Where educational attainment is not satisfactory, this should prompt investigation as to the causes which may be related to quality of educational services; the socio-economic circumstances of families in the area or other factors known to influence achievement. |
| Interpretation: Potential for error due to type of measurement method |
Any five subjects taken at GCSE 5 counts and therefore key skills such as English and Mathematics may not be assessed. There are also issues of equivalence of GCSE and other qualifications such as NVQs. For example a pupil with English, Mathematics, Double Science and German with top grades, currently counts equally with one who has a barepass in an Intermediate GNVQ course in IT (being equivalent to 4 passes) and a GCSE grade C in any other subject. Some schools may show improvement in educational attainment through changing the type of qualifications being taken.See: Nuffield Review of 14-19 Education and Training Working Paper 4 (based on Discussion Paper given at Working Day I, 17 Dec 2003) CONTINUITY AND DISCONTINUITY IN THE ‘14-19 CURRICULUM’ Jeremy Higham, Post-14 Research Group, School of Education, University of Leeds. Available from: http://www.nuffield14-19review.org.uk/files/documents12-1.pdf |
| Interpretation: Potential for error due to bias and confounding |
The statistic measures GCSE attainment in LEA maintained schools and therefore does not include attainment for children who are educated in private schools, approximately 7% of children in England. The statistic also does not take into account where pupils live. For some inner-London boroughs, this can mean up to 40% of resident pupils being educated privately or travelling to state schools in other boroughs. Estimating the likely impact of private education and pupils travelling to schools outside their resident local authorities is problematic. The annual schools’ census collects information on pupils in independent schools educated in those schools, regardless of where the pupils live. However, information is not available on the area of residence of pupils in independent schools and which local education authority would be responsible for them. Areas have different densities of independent schools. |
| Confidence Intervals: Definition and purpose |
A confidence interval is a range of values that is normally used to describe the uncertainty around a point estimate of a quantity, for example, a mortality rate. This uncertainty arises as factors influencing the indicator are subject to chance occurrences that are inherent in the world around us. These occurrences result in random fluctuations in the indicator value between different areas and time periods. In the case of indicators based on a sample of the population, uncertainty also arises from random differences between the sample and the population itself.The stated value should therefore be considered as only an estimate of the true or ‘underlying’ value. Confidence intervals quantify the uncertainty in this estimate and, generally speaking, describe how much different the point estimate could have been if the underlying conditions stayed the same, but chance had led to a different set of data. The wider is the confidence interval the greater is the uncertainty in the estimate.Confidence intervals are given with a stated probability level. In Health Profiles 2007 this is 95%, and so we say that there is a 95% probability that the interval covers the true value. The use of 95% is arbitrary but is conventional practice in medicine and public health. The confidence intervals have also been used to make comparisons against the national value. For this purpose the national value has been treated as an exact reference value rather than as an estimate and, under these conditions, the interval can be used to test whether the value is statistically significantly different to the national. If the interval includes the national value, the difference is not statistically significant and the value is shown on the health summary chart with a white symbol. If the interval does not include the national value, the difference is statistically significant and the value is shown on the health summary chart with a red or amber symbol depending on whether it is worse or better than the national value respectively. |
